Sunset in America (1)

Let's look at the outcomes from the political scene on February 9, 2008:
McCain defeats Clinton or Obama

If McCain wins, then we face an opponent we helped elect. McCain will hold us in contempt and condescension and undermine any effort to restore conservatism to the mainstream of the Republican party. He can't change and wouldn't change that aspect of personality.

On one hand, he may focus on the war, considering everything else small potatoes. On the other hand, he may carry on his grudge from 2000 when he blamed his losses in the primary on conservatives. I hope he's indifferent to whether his successor follows his political style.

In any case, I hope we can identify the man who is the Reagan-of-1977 to become the Reagan-of-1980. It may just be Mitt Romney. Even if McCain wins, he may not be the nominee in 2012.

Prediction:A 4- or 8- year distraction of fighting McCain's agenda and dealing with his insults and undermining of the conservative movement by marginalizing it as extremist. It will be nasty. We need to dedicate some of the fight to reclaim the soul of the Republican party from the people we were calling days ago "RINO"s. Meanwhile the country digs itself into a hole like Jimmy Carter's single term.

Clinton or Obama defeats McCain

There are no serious differences between these two except for personalities. I think Democrats are looking to the future and not the past (I give the edge now to Obama). Either of them brings defeat to the war on terror, socialism to the economy, and Quebec- (or Belgian- or Balkan-) divisions to this nation making the notion of "an American culture" a matter of nostalgia. Many will welcome each of these, and the President will proclaim their mandate for this.

Prediction:A 4-year rush to implement everything while they have the White House, Congress, and 2 or 3 upcoming Supreme Court vacancies. I think they have the political savvy to know how far too go without disturbing the American electorate.
The Democrats believe they are writing the obituary for the Republican Party and a permanent electoral majority at the federal level.

Even if, a conservative gets the 2012 (or 2016) Republican nomination and wins, he or she faces not only the same challenges as Nixon, Reagan, and Bush-43 did cleaning up after an activist Democrat but the accumulation of entitlements and pork spending as obligations for their term of office. The next conservative may face a government essentially locked-in to a socialist track and demographically transformed by 25 to 50 million immigrants.